Economy 2 min read By Arthur Ellington
US holiday sales forecast to reach $1.013 trillion despite consumer restraint
The National Retail Federation projects 2026 holiday sales of $1.013 trillion even as consumers cut back spending, while retail faces a sharp divide between luxury and mid-tier stores.
The National Retail Federation has forecast that holiday sales in 2026 will reach $1.013 trillion, a projection that arrives at a time when shoppers are pulling back on their spending. The figure points to a season of substantial overall activity, even as household caution grows.
The forecast sits uneasily alongside the wider picture for retail. Pacer.ai, which tracks foot traffic, says the sector is sharply split heading into the holidays. Luxury apparel visits grew year on year in 2025, while visits to mid-tier retailers have been faltering. Pacer.ai's data underlies that divide, suggesting that affluent consumers continue to spend on premium goods while more price-conscious shoppers are holding back.
That split raises the central question for the season: whether the $1.013 trillion total will actually be reached. The gap between a headline forecast and the restraint visible in consumer behaviour remains unresolved, and the figures available do not yet show how the two will be reconciled. The source material is a brief excerpt, and the full methodology behind the National Retail Federation's estimate is not set out in the details available, so the basis for the total cannot be assessed in full.
For retailers, the divergence matters because it suggests that the holiday outcome will vary widely depending on the kind of store and the customer it serves. Businesses positioned at the top of the market may find demand more resilient than those serving mid-tier buyers, whose foot traffic is already under pressure. Whether that pattern holds through the peak weeks of the season will determine how far the aggregate forecast reflects the experience of individual retailers.
Source: forbes.com
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