Technology 6 min read By Callum Montgomery
Verizon CEO Predicts AGI Within 18 Months and a Century of Change in a Decade
Dan Schulman told a Detroit business audience that artificial general intelligence could arrive within six to 18 months, warning that the pace of change will overwhelm existing systems for training, labour markets and public policy.
Artificial general intelligence could arrive within six to 18 months, Verizon chief executive Dan Schulman has predicted, warning that the technology will deliver a century of progress in a single decade and force sweeping changes to how companies organise their workforces.
Speaking at the Ford Pro Accelerate event in Detroit, Schulman said the AI models in use today are the weakest that will ever be deployed. «The models that we see today are the worst models we'll ever use in our lives,» he said. «Every two months, there's a step function change in the power of the models. I think we get to some form of AGI in the next six to 18 months. I think it's right on us.»
AGI refers to systems capable of reasoning and performing broadly across domains rather than excelling at narrow, discrete tasks. Schulman said that within roughly two years of reaching that threshold, the world would enter what he called «the era of quantum», which he described as «everything today times 1,000». By 2030 or 2035, he added, society should expect «a pretty good form of humanoid robotics».
The Verizon chief argued that the economic and social consequences of AI will arrive faster than the usual mechanisms for absorbing technological change, including training systems, labour markets, corporate restructuring and public policy. «It is about machines that will in many ways be able to do things better than a lot of human tasks are done today,» he said.
Schulman said the disruption would reach Verizon itself, which employs more than 250,000 people and contractors. The company will need to move from a workforce organised around «very defined roles and functions» to a «much more fluid organisation», he said. «Everybody's job is going to shift,» he added. «I don't think everybody will land just magically in a better place per se.»
He urged corporate leaders and government to prepare for difficult scenarios rather than assume the labour market will adjust on its own. Verizon last week announced a $70 million initiative to provide free AI training for American workers, not only its own employees but people in communities across the country, alongside work with local organisations on career development.
«Our responsibility is to think about what might go wrong, what might we need to address, what might the disruption look like, and how do we put guardrails, training, programs in place to minimize that risk,» Schulman said.
Other executives on the panel described different constraints on the AI future. Patti Poppe, chief executive of PG&E, said an increasingly digitised grid will require workers who combine physical skills with technological fluency. She described seeing one of the utility's workers lowered by rope from a helicopter onto a transmission tower in mountainous California. The future grid, she said, will use sensors, remote-edge computing and predictive capabilities to identify risks before they cause outages or wildfires, but it will still need skilled people in the field. «The same guys who hang on the end of the rope are going to have to get smarter about those kinds of technologies,» Poppe said. «I'm still going to need those people. Somebody's still going to have to connect that wire to the pole.»
Dave Regnery, chief executive of Trane Technologies, compared current anxieties about AI to fears surrounding the arrival of personal computers four decades ago. He said his company uses data and AI to manage heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems according to how buildings are actually used, rather than merely according to their original design specifications. «Most people don't realize that 30% of all the energy is for buildings,» Regnery said. «And you know what? Thirty percent of that is wasted.»
He said Trane can make buildings operate roughly 15% more efficiently than their design baseline, improving economics for customers while creating demand for technicians able to install, service and operate increasingly sophisticated systems. That offers a counterweight to the idea that the technology's principal effect will be displacement.
Chris Nelson, chief executive of Stanley Black & Decker, described a similar transition on construction sites. His company has developed AI-enabled autonomous drilling robots that can use digital construction plans to drill holes for racks in data centres and other projects. The technology is designed to take over repetitive physical tasks rather than replace the electricians and skilled tradespeople needed to complete the work.
Schulman acknowledged that safeguards will be required as the technology advances, but said it will continue regardless. «The technology is coming,» he said. «There will be safeguards around it. There need to be additional safeguards, but it will continue on.»
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