Politics 6 min read By Arthur Ellington
US warns Middle East allies to prepare for possible Iran strikes after midterms
US officials have told several Middle East countries to brace for renewed military action against Iran after the 3 November midterm elections, and for possible Iranian retaliation.
U.S. officials have told several Middle East countries and regional allies to be prepared for potential renewed military action against Iran after next week's midterm elections in the United States, along with the possibility that Iran will retaliate against them, according to two diplomats briefed on the matter. Both diplomats spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss the sensitive warnings.
The diplomats stressed that President Donald Trump has not made a final decision on whether to carry out new strikes. Trump has, however, repeatedly said he is weighing new military action once the 3 November elections are over. The warnings and the fresh urgings for allies to prepare for retaliation have put the region on alert that a return to major operations could be on the horizon. The White House and U.S. officials declined to comment.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday in a post on X that Tehran « continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed » and is working with mediators to review ideas included in a proposal floated last month, which Trump summarily rejected. Tehran still wants those ideas used as the basis for a return to a ceasefire. The United Arab Emirates foreign ministry, meanwhile, urged the sides to « exercise wisdom and pursue political solutions » to contain tensions and prevent a return to full-scale operations in the war that began in late February.
According to the diplomats, the U.S. has told regional allies that a new round of military action could last several days. Regional officials are bracing for Iran and its proxy groups to retaliate, which could prolong the fighting. U.S. officials have also urged allies to take precautionary measures in anticipation that Iran's response could include strikes on energy facilities and other critical infrastructure.
The United States has not carried out a strike against Iran since early September, but the situation in the Middle East has grown more complicated. The conflict has spread, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels carrying out attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and airports. A Saudi-led coalition has responded with its own deadly attacks on Houthi-held territory in Yemen. The Wall Street Journal earlier reported that Gulf nations had been briefed by the U.S. to prepare for potential escalation.
It remains unclear how soon after Election Day the U.S. military would be ready to resume strikes. Late last month the Pentagon deployed the USS Theodore Roosevelt, along with a series of amphibious landing ships carrying Marines, roughly 9,000 troops in all, from San Diego to the Persian Gulf. One U.S. official said the deployment could produce an unusually high naval presence of more than 20,000 sailors and Marines, plus hundreds of aircraft, in the region, something that has happened only a handful of times in the past two decades. The Navy had three carrier strike groups in the Middle East in April, the first time since 2003.
Late on Wednesday, reports emerged that Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth had fired the Pentagon's top military planner. Army Lieutenant General Brett Sylvia was removed as head of strategy, plans and policy on the Joint Chiefs of Staff, according to a defence official who spoke on condition of anonymity. The official said there is no immediate replacement and no reason has been given for the firing.
Trump, who has spent recent weeks campaigning for Republicans, has been evasive about his next steps on Iran. The war has weighed heavily on Republican candidates as they make their case to voters fatigued by rising petrol prices, a byproduct of the conflict that has driven up costs across nearly every sector of the global economy. The cost of the Iran war to American taxpayers has reached $47.1 billion, according to the latest Pentagon estimate provided to Congress.
At a campaign stop in Lubbock, Texas, on Tuesday, Trump said a conclusive end to the eight-month-old conflict could come « in a couple of weeks, if you don't mind ». He added: « I said, 'Whenever I want it to end.' It'll be very quick, but we have to have it end properly, with total and complete — a total statement, they will never have a nuclear weapon. »
Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank, said that while Trump may be looking at a post-election timeline, the region is on edge that Tehran could act provocatively before then, especially if it believes U.S. action is imminent. « Why would they wait until after the elections here if they could initiate it and potentially gain the upper hand? » he said.
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