Politics 5 min read By Callum Montgomery
Nobel Peace Prize 2026: ISS Among Contenders as Committee Weighs Record 287 Nominations
The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the 2026 Peace Prize on 9 October, with the International Space Station, Donald Trump, Mark Carney and Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms among 287 candidates. Experts say the choice will carry political consequences regardless of the winner.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce this year's Peace Prize on 9 October in Oslo, with the International Space Station emerging as a serious contender among a record field of 287 candidates. The annual guessing game, often described as the most prestigious award on the planet, has taken an unusual turn this year as experts suggest the prize could leave the planet entirely.
Haakon Gjerløw, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo and one of the most closely watched forecasters, has placed the organisation behind the ISS on his annual watch list. He argues the station represents a rare symbol of global cooperation at a time when multilateralism is crumbling and many countries have retreated into narrower national interests. The committee typically focuses on the durability of peace, the promotion of international fraternity and the quiet work of institutions that strengthen those goals — criteria that could favour the space station's decades-long record of international scientific collaboration.
But terrestrial contenders loom large. US President Donald Trump has been nominated again and has made no secret of his desire to win. His candidacy could prove controversial, however, given that the United States, alongside Israel, launched an ongoing war on Iran in February. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has also made his mark internationally this year, largely by standing up to Trump on issues such as US tariffs. Nelson Wiseman, a professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, noted that the selection will carry political fallout regardless of the outcome. «Trump will be unhappy whoever gets the Nobel,» he said. «If Carney got it, it would make relations with Canada rockier than they are.»
Gjerløw's list also features Ukrainian children's advocate Mykola Kuleba and Save the Children; Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, a grassroots relief network; and the Committee to Protect Journalists, following the deadliest two years for reporters since record-keeping began nearly 45 years ago. The International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court received a joint nod, though the ICC has faced criticism over its arrest warrants against leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump has long criticised the court, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a campaign in July to «dismantle the threat» posed by the ICC to US sovereignty. Later that month, the ICC's chief prosecutor was removed from office over sexual misconduct allegations.
This year's prize comes amid the most war and conflict in decades, including in Sudan, Ukraine, Yemen, Iran and the Middle East. Shawn Davies, a senior analyst at the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, cited «increased international tensions and changes in the global security order» linked to an erosion of US willingness to enforce international rules. Washington has gone from guarantor of the postwar order to a violator of it in some cases, he said. «I don't even think his own base would believe» Trump could win the prize now, «given how he's stuck in what looks like a forever war in Iran,» Davies added.
Jody Williams, who won the 1997 Peace Prize jointly with the International Campaign to Ban Landmines, said she hopes for a continued trend toward awarding the prize to women. Only 20 of the prize's 112 individual laureates have been women in its 125-year history, though in the past 15 years eight women have won individually compared with six men. Among the women circulating in prediction markets this year are Gaza surgeon Sara al-Saqqa and Yulia Navalnaya, the Russian opposition figure and widow of Alexei Navalny.
Nobel week kicks off on Monday with the medicine prize, followed by physics on Tuesday, chemistry on Wednesday and literature on Thursday. After Friday's peace prize, the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences will be announced on 12 October. This year's prize money is 12 million Swedish kronor, about $1.2 million, whether for an individual, a small group of laureates or an organisation.
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