Economy 3 min read By Arthur Ellington
Nicușor Dan Forecasts 150 Billion Lei Budget Deficit for 2026
President Nicușor Dan announced a 2026 budget deficit of 150 billion lei, 22 billion above the figure committed by the government, and warned of the risk of a downgrade below investment grade.
President Nicușor Dan announced, at a press conference at the Cotroceni Palace, that Romania's budget deficit for 2026 will reach 150 billion lei. The figure exceeds by 22 billion lei the level of 128 billion lei committed by Romania, according to the rectified budget, where the deficit is estimated at approximately 6.2% of gross domestic product.
According to Nicușor Dan, about 60 billion lei of the deficit will go toward paying interest on debts contracted in the past. The president compared the sum of 150 billion lei with the funds of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan over a period of five years, to illustrate the scale of the financial effort.
Data for the first nine months of the year show a deficit of 78.5 billion lei, down from 102.5 billion lei in the same period of the previous year. Expressed as a share of GDP, the nine-month deficit stands at 3.82%, compared with 5.35% a year earlier. The difference between the announced figures is partly explained by methodology, as the deficit is calculated differently in cash accounting and in accounting compliant with ESA and SEC standards.
Finance Minister Alexandru Nazare argued that the state's unpaid invoices explain only about 1 billion lei of the 28 billion lei difference between the estimates. The minister's statement thus contradicts the explanation offered by the president, according to which the discrepancy has mainly an accounting cause.
Nicușor Dan warned that a major danger would be Romania's downgrade below investment grade. In such a situation, according to the president, institutional funds could leave the country and financing would become more expensive. He stated that replacing these investors would cost more and that an intervention by the International Monetary Fund, as in 2009, cannot be ruled out. Higher borrowing costs would then be passed on to households and companies.
The president stressed that restoring confidence once it has been lost usually takes between six and seven years. The rating agency S&P confirmed Romania's rating at BBB-/A-3 last month, with a negative outlook. Fitch and Moody's also rate Romania at the lowest investment-grade level, likewise with negative outlooks.
Economist Adrian Negrescu considers that 2027 will be a second year of austerity, probably harsher than the current one. According to him, Nicușor Dan is preparing public opinion for difficult measures. Separately, a report shows that Romania has 3,816 retail projects, with an investment of about 80 billion lei, more than half of which are still in the authorization phase, while approximately 650 are under construction.
Source: economedia.ro
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