Economy 5 min read By Alice Ashford
China's Container Export Share Hits Record 40% as US Tariffs Fail to Curb Its Trade Dominance
China now accounts for a record 40% of global container exports, according to the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, as US tariffs push Chinese goods into new markets and transshipment routes. Economists warn the shift is squeezing European and American manufacturers.
China has reached a record 40% share of global container exports on a rolling three-month basis, according to Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. The figure, reported by the Financial Times, marks a 2.5% increase from nine months ago and represents the highest level ever recorded. The milestone suggests that US tariffs, designed to punish Chinese firms, have instead been navigated successfully by Chinese exporters.
For Europe, the swelling share of global shipments signals a deepening trade imbalance. Eskelund warned that cheaper Chinese goods flooding European markets are squeezing out local manufacturers, costing the continent global export market share. The United States faces a similar dynamic, echoing the «China Shock» of the early 2000s, when a surge of Chinese products following the country's entry into the World Trade Organization throttled US manufacturing and left pockets of America with massive job losses and stagnant wages. Economists now predict a «China Shock 2.0» that will extend beyond retail shelves into technology such as AI infrastructure and electric vehicles.
«China really is becoming the workshop of the world,» Jeremi Suri, a public affairs and history professor at the University of Texas at Austin, told Fortune. «And what that means is that almost every global economy is one way or another dependent on China.» Suri argues that the tariff policies of the past two years have been an «unmitigated disaster» for the United States, exacerbating the very problem they were meant to solve.
Part of China's rise stems from a natural cycle. The US began transitioning from a manufacturing to a service economy in the 1950s, while China ended isolationist policies in the 1970s and cemented its role in global trade when it joined the WTO 25 years ago. An undervalued currency allows Chinese firms to charge up to 30% less than competitors for exports, creating a glut of production sold overseas. Tariffs may have accelerated this by shutting China out of parts of the US market, forcing exporters to find new buyers. The levies have also encouraged transshipments, where China sends intermediate parts to lower-tariff countries for assembly and sale to the US with fewer import taxes. Last month, the White House claimed the US lost between $19 billion and $26 billion in tax revenue from transshipments, with China the primary culprit. The administration has broadened the definition of transshipments to include goods linked to China or where China plays a supply-chain role.
Suri expects China to continue branching out to other countries, not only to evade tariffs but because US trade policy has damaged America's credibility as a reliable partner. «We use trade for power, but we can't presume that those levers will be as meaningful going forward,» he said. «With tariffs, we're pushing countries further away more quickly.»
Not all economists view the container data as a clear victory for China. Andrew Greenland, a professor of economics at North Carolina State University, cautioned that transshipments and diversions are responses to a changing trade landscape, not necessarily a net increase in global trade share. «I'm not saying that China isn't growing in prominence,» Greenland told Fortune. «But the fact that they're showing up as having more shipments, for example, could be consistent with any of those mechanisms.» He sees the increased shipments as a sign China has adapted to US tariffs, though not necessarily benefited from them. Diversifying trading partners and engaging in transshipments were not prohibited before the tariffs, leading Greenland to believe the changes are «an adjustment that's not necessarily making things better» for China.
Still, should tariffs continue to erode US trade relationships, China's inroads in diversifying its own partners could position it as an even greater trade power in the future. Asked whether it is good for China to find new export markets as the US becomes a less stable business partner, Greenland replied: «Yeah. It's good that they've been able to find places to send things that have not just meant sitting on excess supply.»
The record container share comes as President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping prepare for a two-day summit beginning Wednesday, with trade expected to dominate the agenda.
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