Business 4 min read By Arthur Ellington
Prediction markets ramp up celebrity ads despite backlash over Sweeney and LeBron spots
Prediction market platforms are spending heavily on celebrity advertising campaigns, drawing criticism over marketing tactics as the industry expands amid legal uncertainty over sports contracts.
Prediction market platforms are pouring money into celebrity-fronted advertising campaigns to fuel user growth, even as the strategy draws mounting public criticism. The latest push came on Wednesday when sports trading platform Novig released a video featuring actress Sydney Sweeney appearing nearly nude to promote its sports-only offering ahead of the NFL season opener. The advertisement quickly drew scrutiny of the sector's marketing tactics and its efforts to boost engagement.
The Novig spot landed a day after Polymarket enlisted basketball star LeBron James for a football-season commercial packed with prominent athletes, including Eli Manning and Derek Jeter, alongside entertainment figures such as filmmaker Spike Lee and model Emily Ratajkowski. Social media reaction was swift and largely negative. One user wrote of Novig's promotion: «Selling gambling by selling sex. Society is crumbling before our eyes.» Another responded to Polymarket's ad with: «Damn, I can't believe LeBron is a sellout now.» A third post claimed the James deal knocked him out of contention for the title of greatest basketball player of all time, arguing Michael Jordan remained «untainted by the allure of sports gambling.»
The celebrity advertising push comes as prediction markets expand rapidly across the United States despite a contentious legal and regulatory fight. These platforms allow users to buy and sell contracts on outcomes ranging from sports and politics to pop culture, often with just a few clicks. Their growth has intensified scrutiny over whether sports-related contracts should be treated as federally regulated financial products or as gambling subject to state law.
To sustain that momentum, prediction market companies are investing heavily in high-profile marketing. Kalshi and Polymarket, two of the sector's largest players each valued at roughly $20 billion, have spent substantial sums to recruit celebrities. Because sports-related contracts account for a large share of activity on their platforms, the companies have timed major campaigns around the start of major sports seasons.
In the lead-up to the World Cup, soccer's biggest international tournament, Kalshi ran ads featuring Argentina captain Lionel Messi alongside teammates Nicolás Otamendi and Rodrigo De Paul as part of a commercial partnership with the country's national football federation. The platform also featured Luka Modrić, captain of Croatia's national team, in a separate campaign. Before that, Kalshi enlisted Oscar-nominated actor Timothée Chalamet for a series of ads set in mundane locations, including a dentist's office and a music store.
The marketing push comes as prediction markets confront mounting uncertainty over their legal future. In August, the Ninth Circuit ruled that Nevada could enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi's sports-event contracts, rejecting the company's argument that federal commodities law preempted state oversight. With appellate courts now divided, the dispute over who gets to regulate the fast-growing industry could reach the Supreme Court as early as next year.
