Politics 5 min read By Alice Ashford
Houthi attacks on Saudi oil and airports intensify as US holds fire before midterms
The Iran-backed Houthis have escalated strikes on Saudi Aramco and Riyadh airport, killing at least 20, while Washington delays a response until after the November 3 midterm elections. Analysts warn the calm may not hold as oil prices remain above $100 a barrel.
The Iran-backed Houthi movement has dramatically escalated its attacks on Saudi Arabia, striking a portion of Saudi Aramco's headquarters and vowing to continue targeting airports and energy facilities. The strikes, described by analysts as unprecedented in their success, have killed at least 20 people at Riyadh airport, including one US citizen, and injured hundreds more. A missile hit part of the state oil company's headquarters on Wednesday, following a weekend of devastating assaults.
Despite the intensity of the attacks, the US response has been muted. President Donald Trump has accused the Houthis of «behaving very badly» and said the US will «move very quickly», but little military action has followed. Both Washington and Tehran appear to be eyeing the November 3 midterm elections. Trump wants to avoid escalation that could further inflame already record-high petrol and diesel prices, while Iran seeks to inflict maximum political damage. On social media, Trump said: «I'll be there after the Elections, and I will never forget!»
Fernando Ferreira, director of geopolitical risk at Rapidan Energy Group, said it is unprecedented for the Houthis to strike so successfully at critical Saudi infrastructure. «The measured [US] response reflects the fact that there are not a lot of good options to respond here,» he said. «We can escalate against the Houthis and impose a lot of pain, but that won't necessarily change the Houthi calculus or significantly degrade their capabilities. The Houthis have developed capabilities that are well underground, they're protected.»
The same dynamic is playing out in the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic is slowing this week from last month's post-February highs. The International Energy Agency reported on Wednesday that September oil volumes out of the Middle East rose to 75% of pre-war levels. The US had promised «tanker-for-a-tanker» actions, attacking an Iranian vessel for each one struck by Iran, with the US response often exceeding the initial attack. «We haven't really responded to the latest wave of Iranian attacks,» Ferreira said. «We've seen at least 20-plus attacks over the course of the past two weeks.»
The question now is whether the US will wait until after November 3 for an escalated response, or whether the provocations will force the Trump administration to act sooner. Oil forecaster Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, described the current situation as a possible «calm before the storm». «We're staring at the midterms and there is no response,» he said. «It's an unpopular conflict. If you're ramping [the war] back up, that's scary. If you just choose words, that looks weak. So, it feels like the US has chosen to ignore the problem rather than address it.»
Pickering added that it is unclear whether this is the calm before the storm or whether the US is deciding it does not want to acknowledge any storm. Engaging directly in bigger attacks on the Houthis would require spending significant political capital and military expenditure, and the US appears to have decided it is not worth it at this time. The Houthis' attacks are more sophisticated than ever, using advanced drone warfare and years of planning. Even though the Saudis have more firepower overall, they cannot defend every strike, and every Saudi response is answered by Houthi escalation.
Part of the reason for the US restraint may be that more oil is exiting the Middle East — despite increased volatility this week — thanks to US investment in military escorts out of the strait. But that could backfire. «Iran will not accept the status quo as we have now where we're moving millions of barrels a day through Hormuz,» Ferreira said. «They will not just simply stand by and allow that to happen. We're seeing that playing out now, and they're forcing a confrontation.»
Oil is priced well over $100 per barrel, and gasoline and diesel prices are at or near seasonal record highs. Trump even brokered a deal with Russia for a limited amount of diesel exports in exchange for reduced Russian sanctions, a move experts said will have little impact on pricing. With the war in its eighth month, US oil producers are now beginning to prepare for higher prices deep into 2027 and possibly 2028. That could mean more spending, drilling, and US volumes pushed to new record highs next year, as well as higher fuel prices for longer. «The producers haven't had a price signal to react to, but they're starting to get one,» Pickering said.
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