Politics 4 min read By Callum Montgomery
Cook Political Report says GOP House majority chances have all but evaporated
The Cook Political Report has moved 19 House races toward Democrats, saying Republicans' path to keeping the chamber has all but evaporated and that Democrats now are favored outright in the 218 seats needed for control.
The Cook Political Report has moved 19 House races toward Democrats, concluding that Republicans' chances of keeping control of the chamber after the November midterms have all but disappeared. The nonpartisan election forecaster said Democrats now are favoured outright in 218 seats, the minimum needed to hold the majority.
In the update published on Friday, Cook analyst Erin Covey wrote that the Republican path to retaining the House had all but evaporated. She said the open question is how large the Democratic majority will be in 2027. In the best-case scenario for Democrats, the party could enter the new Congress with more seats than it won during its House gains in 2006 and 2018. Cook's ratings place 220 seats as solid, likely or lean Democrat, two more than the threshold, while 198 seats are favoured for Republicans and 17 races remain pure toss-ups.
Of the 19 districts moved, six shifted from toss-up to lean Democrat, four of which are held by Republican incumbents. Two more races moved from lean Republican to toss-up, and two additional seats shifted in the same direction. Cook now lists 17 races as toss-ups, 12 of them held by Republicans. Among the 16 races rated lean Democrat, 12 are held by Republicans, compared with only two of the 17 lean Republican races held by Democrats.
Cook's most likely outcome is that Democrats flip between 12 and 22 Republican-held seats in the November 3 elections, which would give them between 227 and 237 seats in the next Congress. Democrats currently hold 215 seats, meaning they need a net gain of only three to take back the majority. Cook's earlier update this month had projected a narrower range of nine to 19 seats, and the forecaster has been steadily shifting races since September.
The forecast reflects a broader deterioration in the political environment for Republicans. Some of the most competitive House races are in districts that President Donald Trump won in 2024, and Trump is underwater in many of them, largely because of dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy. Trump's job approval stood at 36 per cent in a New York Times/Siena poll and 32 per cent in a CNN poll released in the same week, both record lows in those surveys. Cook noted that Republicans had argued that mid-decade redistricting and a financial advantage would give them more room, but new Democratic maps in California and Utah have largely offset those gains.
Republicans still hold a fundraising edge. The National Republican Congressional Committee entered the final stretch with $13 million more cash on hand than the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, a record advantage for this point in the cycle. Prediction markets were also bullish on Democrats, with Kalshi odds giving Democrats a 91.5 per cent chance of winning the House against 8.5 per cent for Republicans.
Republican leaders have signalled confidence. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Fox News Digital he expects Republicans to hold the chamber. Election forecasters expect the Senate to remain under Republican control, although seven races are considered toss-ups by Cook.
6
