Business 4 min read By Bethany Hadley
Kalshi cofounder credits flat structure for rapid growth
Luana Lopes Lara says avoiding vice presidents and formal hierarchies lets the prediction market make decisions faster, as the company faces lawsuits over its sports betting products.
Kalshi has grown into the leading prediction market in North America by deliberately avoiding the management layers that slow down most expanding companies, according to its cofounder and chief operating officer.
Luana Lopes Lara told the Fortune Most Powerful Women Summit in Santa Barbara that the biggest threat to a fast-growing startup is not competition but internal bureaucracy — the flurry of new meetings, approval requests and red tape that emerges as headcount rises. Kalshi has sidestepped that by remaining, in her words, «a very flat organization».
«We don't have 'heads of,' or VPs, or all of that structure,» she said. «Everyone just reports to me, or one step away from me, and I think that also makes us able to move so much faster.» The approach, she argued, allows the company to make decisions and adjust quickly.
The strategy appears to be paying off. One research firm estimated in June that Kalshi was on track for $4 billion in annualised revenue, up from $775 million in December. A separate analyst has suggested the company could soon be worth as much as $42 billion.
Much of that expansion has been driven by an explosion in sports betting, but Kalshi has also pushed into other products, including futures markets for compute. That combination has made it the clear leader in North American prediction markets.
The growth has brought personal changes for Lopes Lara, 30, who earlier this year became the world's youngest self-made female billionaire. Asked about the milestone, she said she is «so very grateful, but it is very weird,» adding that her daily routine has barely shifted.
«Very little changed in my life. I'm still in the office over 12 hours every day, and just pretty much try to do the same thing that I always did,» she said.
Kalshi's rise has not been smooth. The company is embroiled in lawsuits across the United States, with dozens of state governments claiming it is running an illegal sports gambling operation. The litigation has already produced conflicting rulings from different appeals courts, and the Supreme Court is widely expected to rule on the matter next year.
Kalshi argues that its sports wagers should be treated differently from traditional casino or sportsbook bets because users bet against each other rather than against «the house» — a distinction some courts have rejected.
Lopes Lara said she is optimistic the company will prevail and that, whatever the final legal outcome, Kalshi will be able to navigate any future regulatory framework.
She identified one of the company's primary challenges as educating people about the nature of probabilities. She pointed to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections as an example of how prediction market odds are often misunderstood.
«I think it's 92% that the Democrats will take the House, but if the 8% happens, I think a lot of the narratives from the media will be that the markets are wrong. But actually, something that has an 8% chance means that eight in 100 times it will happen,» she said.
Lopes Lara also addressed controversy over a viral advertising campaign by Novig, a new sports-focused prediction market firm, which featured a nearly naked Sydney Sweeney.
«It's not an ad that we would ever put out, or that I, as a woman, would feel comfortable putting out or seeing. I don't think it's the brand that we want to build,» she said.
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